Modeling cholera epidemics

We are interested in modeling cholera epidemics in a variety of settings, and our efforts will focus on studying the dynamics of outbreaks and predicting the effectiveness of different intervention strategies.

This work is supported by:


Modeling the 2010-2011 cholera outbreak in Haiti


We created a computer simulation model for the 2010-2011 cholera epidemic in Haiti. The model includes major rivers, which can transport Vibrio cholerae downstream, and highways, which facilitate travel. It also simulates the effects of vaccination. The model is described in our article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The model relies on LandScan estimates of the population density of Haiti. We are not permitted to redistribute this data, so we are unable to package a working simulation for downloading. If you are a researcher interested in running the simulation, please contact me, and maybe we can work something out.

The data files for the river and highway locations are derived from OpenStreetMap's data (http://labs.geofabrik.de/haiti/2010-11-23-17-44.osm.bz2), which is publicly available, I think. Please contact me if you need them.

We are releasing the C++ code with no instructions or data files. Therefore, it is of limited usefulness to anyone but other modelers who are interested in its implementation. It is being released in the spirit of "Publish your computer code: it is good enough". It has been compiled and run on Linux machines and requires the GNU Scientific library for random number generation.

The code is released under the GPLv3, which basically means that you are free to use the code as you wish, but if you choose to distribute a work that incorporates any of this code, you must release your source code.

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This code is released under the GPLv3.

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