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## May 27, 2007

### DS07

This week, I'm in Snowbird, UT for SIAM's conference on Applications of Dynamical Systems (DS07). I'm here for a mini-symposium on complex networks organized by Mason Porter and Peter Mucha. I'll be blogging about these (and maybe other) network sessions as time allows (I realize that I still haven't blogged about NetSci last week - that will be coming soon...).

posted May 27, 2007 11:38 PM in Scientifically Speaking | permalink | Comments (1)

## May 21, 2007

### NetSci 2007

This week, I'm in New York City for the International Conference on Network Science, being held at the New York Hall of Science Museum in Queens. I may not be able to blog each day about the events, but I'll be posting my thoughts and comments as things progress. Stay tuned. In the meantime, here's the conference talk schedule.

posted May 21, 2007 11:41 AM in Scientifically Speaking | permalink | Comments (0)

### IPAM - Random and Dynamic Graphs and Networks (Days 4 & 5)

*Two weeks ago, I was in Los Angeles for the Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics' (IPAM, at UCLA) workshop on Random and Dynamic Graphs and Networks; this is the fourth and fifth entry.*

Rather than my usual format of summarizing the things that got me thinking during the last few days, I'm going to go with a more free-form approach.

Thursday began with Jennifer Chayes (MSR) discussing some analytical work on adapting convergence-in-distribution proof techniques to ensembles of graphs. She introduced the cut-norm graph distance metric (useful on dense graphs; says that they have some results for sparse graphs, but that it's more difficult for those). The idea of graph distance seems to pop up in many different areas (including several I've been thinking of) and is closely related to the GRAPH ISOMORPHISM problem (which is not known to be NP-complete, but nor is it known to be in P). For many reasons, it would be really useful to be able to calculate in polynomial time the minimum edge-edit distance between two graphs; this would open up a lot of useful techniques based on transforming one graph into another.

Friday began with a talk by Jeannette Janssen (Dalhousie University) on a geometric preferential attachment model, which is basically a geometric random graph but where nodes have a sphere of attraction (for new edges) that has volume proportional to the node's in-degree. She showed some very nice mathematical results on this model. I wonder if this idea could be generalized to arbitrary manifolds (with a distance metric on them) and attachment kernels. That is, imagine that our complex network has actually imbedded on some complicated manifold and the attachment is based on some function of the distance on that manifold between the two nodes. The trick would be then to infer both the structure of the manifold and the attachment function from real data. Of course, without some constraints on both features, it would be easy to construct an arbitrary pair (manifold and kernel) that would give you exactly the network you observed. Is it sufficient to get meaningful results that both should be relatively smooth (continuous, differentiable, etc.)?

Jeannette's talk was followed by Filippo Menczer's talk on mining traffic data from the Internet2/Abilene network. The data set was based on daily dumps of end-to-end communications (packet headers with client and server IDs anonymized) and looked at a variety of behaviors of this traffic. He used this data to construct interaction graphs betwen clients and servers, clients and applications (e.g., "web"), and a few other things. The analysis seems relatively preliminary in the sense that there are a lot of data issues that are lurking in the background (things like aggregated traffic from proxies, aliasing and masking effects, etc.) that make it difficult to translate conclusions about the traffic into conclusions about real individual users. But, fascinating stuff, and I'm looking forward to seeing what else comes out of that data.

The last full talk I saw was by Raissa D'Souza on competition-induced preferential attachment, and a little bit at the end on dynamic geometric graphs and packet routing on them. I've seen the technical content of the preferential attachment talk before, but it was good to have the reminder that power-law distributions are not necessarily the only game in town for heavy-tailed distributions, and that even though the traditional preferential attachment mechanism may not be a good model of the way real growing networks change, it may be that another mechanism that better models the real world can **look** like preferential attachment. This ties back to Sidney Redner's comment a couple of days before about the citation network: why does the network look like one grown by preferential attachment, when we know that's not how individual authors choose citations?

posted May 21, 2007 11:38 AM in Scientifically Speaking | permalink | Comments (4)

## May 09, 2007

### IPAM - Random and Dynamic Graphs and Networks (Day 3)

*This week, I'm in Los Angeles for the Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics' (IPAM, at UCLA) workshop on Random and Dynamic Graphs and Networks; this is the third of five entries based on my thoughts from each day. As usual, these topics are a highly subjective slice of the workshop's subject matter...*

**The impact of mobility networks on the worldwide spread of epidemics**

I had the pleasure of introducing Alessandro Vespignani (Indiana University) for the first talk of the day on epidemics in networks, and his work in modeling the effect that particles (people) moving around on the airport network have on models of the spread of disease. I've seen most of this stuff before from previous versions of Alex's talk, but there were several nice additions. The one that struck the audience the most was a visualization of all of the individual flights over the space of a couple of days in the eastern United States; the animation was made by Aaron Koblin for a different project, but was still quite effective in conveying the richness of the air traffic data that Alex has been using to do epidemic modeling and forecasting.

**On the structure of growing networks**

Sidney Redner gave the pre-lunch talk about his work on the preferential attachment growing-network model. Using the master equation approach, Sid explored an extremely wide variety of properties of the PA model, such as the different regimes of degree distribution behavior for sub-, exact, and different kinds of super- linear attachment rates, the first-mover advantage in the network, the importance of initial degree in determining final degree, along with several variations on the initial model. The power of the master equation approach was clearly evident, I should really learn more about.

He also discussed his work analyzing 100 years of citation data from the Physical Review journal (about 350,000 papers and 3.5 million citations; in 1890, the average number of references in a paper was 1, while in 1990, the average number had increased to 10), particularly with respect to his trying to understand the evidence for linear preferential attachment as a model of citation patterns. Quite surprisingly, he showed that for the first 100 or so citations, papers in PR have nearly linear attachment rates. One point Sid made several times in his talk is that almost all of the results for PA models are highly sensitive to variations in the precise details of the attachment mechanism, and that it's easy to get something quite different (so, no power laws) without trying very hard.

Finally, a question he ended with is why does linear PA seem to be a pretty good model for how citations acrue to papers, even though real citation patterns are clearly not dictated by the PA model?

**Panel discussion**

The last talk-slot of the day was replaced by a panel discussion, put together by Walter Willinger and chaired by Mark Newman. Instead of the usual situation where the senior people of a field sit on the panel, this panel was composed of junior people (with the expectation that the senior people in the audience would talk anyway). I was asked to sit on the panel, along with Ben Olding (Harvard), Lea Popovic (Cornell), Leah Shaw (Naval Research Lab), and Lilit Yeghiazarian (UCLA). We each made a brief statement about what we liked about the workshop so far, and what kinds of open questions we would be most interested in seeing the community study.

For my on part, I mentioned many of the questions and themes that I've blogged about the past two days. In addition, I pointed out that **function** is more than just **structure**, being typically **structure plus dynamics**, and that our models currently do little to address the dynamics part of this equation. (For instance, can dynamical generative models of particular kinds of structure tell us more about why networks exhibit those structures specifically, and not some other variety?) Lea and Leah also emphasized dynamics as being a huge open area in terms of both modeling and mechanisms, with Lea pointing out that it's not yet clear what are the right kinds of dynamical processes that we should be studying with networks. (I made a quick list of processes that seem important, but only came up with two main caterogies, branching-contact-epidemic-percolation processes and search-navigation-routing processes. Sid later suggested that consensus-voting style processes, akin to the Ising model, might be another, although there are probably others that we haven't thought up yet.) Ben emphasized the issues of sampling, for instance, sampling subgraphs of our model, e.g., the observable WWW or even just the portion we can crawl in an afternoon, and dealing with sampling effects (i.e., uncertainty) in our models.

The audience had a lot to say on these and other topics, and particularly so on the topics of what statisticians can contribute to the field (and also why there are so few statisticians working in this area; some suggestions that many statisticians are only interested in proving asymptotic results for methods, and those that do deal with data are working on bio-informatics-style applications), and on the cultural difference between the mathematicians who want to prove nice things about toy models (folks like Christian Borgs, Microsoft Research) as a way of understanding the general propeties of networks and of their origin, and the empiricists (like Walter Willinger) who want accurate models of real-world systems that they can use to understand their system better. Mark pointed out that there's a third way in modeling, which relies on using an appropriately defined null model as a probe to explore the structure of your network, i.e., a null model that reproduces some of the structure you see in your data, but is otherwise maximally random, can be used to detect the kind of structure the model **doesn't** explain (so-called "modeling errors", in contrast to "measurement errors"), and thus be used in the standard framework of error modeling that science has used successfully in the past to understand complex systems.

All-in-all, I think the panel discussion was a big success, and the conversation certainly could have gone on well past the one-hour limit that Mark imposed.

posted May 9, 2007 11:38 PM in Scientifically Speaking | permalink | Comments (0)

## May 08, 2007

### IPAM - Random and Dynamic Graphs and Networks (Day 2)

*This week, I'm in Los Angeles for the Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics' (IPAM, at UCLA) workshop on Random and Dynamic Graphs and Networks; this is the second of five entries based on my thoughts from each day. As usual, these topics are a highly subjective slice of the workshop's subject matter...*

**Biomimetic searching strategies**

Massimo Vergassola (Institut Pasteur) started the day with an interesting talk that had nothing to do with networks. Massimo discussed the basic problem of locating a source of smelly molecules in the macroscopic world where air currents cause pockets of the smell to be sparsely scattered across a landscape, thus spoiling the chemotaxis (gradient ascent) strategy used by bacteria, and a clever solution for it (called "infotaxis") based on trading off exploration and exploitation via an adaptive entropy minimization strategy.

**Diversity of graphs with highly variable connectivity**

Following lunch, David Alderson (Naval Postgraduate School) described his work with Lun Li (Caltech) on understanding just how different networks with a given degree distribution can be from each other. The take-home message of Dave's talk is, essentially, that the degree distribution is a pretty weak constraint on other patterns of connectivity, and is not a sufficient statistical characterization of the global structure of the network with respect to many (most?) of the other (say, topological and functional) aspects we might care about. Although he focused primarily on degree assortativity, the same kind of analysis could in principle be done for other network measures (clustering coefficient, distribution, diameter, vertex-vertex distance distribution, etc.), none of which are wholly independent of the degree distribution, or of each other! (I've rarely seen the interdependence of these measures discussed (mentioned?) in the literature, even though they are often treated as such.)

In addition to describing his numerical experiments, Dave sounded a few cautionary notes about the assumptions that are often made in the complex networks literature (particularly by theoreticians using random-graph models) on the significance of the degree distribution. For instance, the configration model with a power-law degree sequence (and similarly, graphs constructed via preferential attachment) yields networks that look almost nothing like any real-world graph that we know, except for making vaguely similar degree distributions, and yet they are often invoked as reasonable models of real-world systems. In my mind, it's not enough to simply fix-up our existing random-graph models to instead define an ensemble with a specific degree distribution, and a specific clustering coefficient, and a diameter, or whatever our favorite measures are. In some sense **all** of these statistical measures just give a stylized picture of the network, and will always be misleading with respect to other important structural features of real-world networks. For the purposes of proving mathematical theorems, I think these simplistic toy models are actually very necessary -- since their strong assumptions make analytic work significantly easier -- so long as we also willfully acknowledge that they are a horrible model of the real world. For the purposes of saying something concrete about real networks, we need more articulate models, and, probably, models that are domain specific. That is, I'd like a model of the Internet that respects the idiosyncracies of this distributed engineered and evolving system; a model of metabolic networks that respects the strangeness of biochemistry; and a model of social networks that understands the structure of individual human interactions. More accurately, we probably need models that understand the function that these networks fulfill, and respect the dynamics of the network in time.

**Greedy search in social networks**

David Liben-Nowell (Carleton College) then closed the day with a great talk on local search in social networks. The content of this talk largely mirrored that of Ravi Kumar's talk at GA Tech back in January, which covered an empirical study of the distribution of the (geographic) distance covered by friendship links in the LiveJournal network (from 2003, when it had about 500,000 users located in the lower 48 states). This work combined some nice data analysis with attempts to validate some of the theoretical ideas due to Kleinberg for locally navigable networks, and a nice generalization of those ideas to networks with non-uniform population distributions.

An interesting point that David made early in his talk was that homophily is not sufficient to explain the presense of either the short paths that Milgrams' original 6-degrees-of-seperation study demonstrated, or even the existence of a connected social graph! That is, without a smoothly varying notion of "likeness", then homophily would lead us to expect disconnected components in the social network. If both likeness and the population density in the likeness space varied smoothly, then a homophilic social web would cover the space, but the average path length would be long, O(n). In order to get the "small world" that we actually observe, we need some amount of non-homophilic connections, or perhaps multiple kinds of "likeness", or maybe some diversity in the preference functions that individuals use to link to each other. Also, it's still not clear what mechanism would lead to the kind of link-length distribution predicted by Kleinberg's model of optimally navigable networks - an answer to this question would, presumably, tell us something about **why** modern societies organize themselves the way they do.

posted May 8, 2007 10:52 PM in Scientifically Speaking | permalink | Comments (0)

## May 07, 2007

### IPAM - Random and Dynamic Graphs and Networks (Day 1)

This week, I'm in Los Angeles for the Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics' (IPAM, at UCLA) workshop on random and dynamic graphs and networks. This workshop is the third of four in their Random Shapes long program. The workshop has the usual format, with research talks throughout the day, punctuated by short breaks for interacting with your neighbors and colleagues. I'll be trying to do the same for this event as I did for the DIMACS workshop I attended back in January, which is to blog each day about interesting ideas and topics. As usual, this is a highly subjective slice of the workshop's subject matter.

**Detecting and understanding the large-scale structure of networks**

Mark Newman (U. Michigan) kicked off the morning by discussing his work on clustering algorithms for networks. As he pointed out, in the olden days of network analysis (c. 30 years ago), you could write down all the nodes and edges in a graph and understand its structure visually. These days, our graphs are too big for this, and we're stuck using statistical probes to understand how these things are shaped. And yet, many papers include figures of networks as incoherent balls of nodes and edges (Mark mentioned that Marc Vidal calls these figures "ridiculograms").

I've seen the technical content of Mark's talk before, but he always does an excellent job of making it seem fresh. In this talk, there was a brief exchange with the audience regarding the NP-completeness of the MAXIMUM MODULARITY problem, which made me wonder what exactly are the kind of structures that would make an instance of the MM problem so hard. Clearly, polynomial time algorithms that approximate the maximum modularity Q exist because we have many heuristics that work well on (most) real-world graphs. But, if I was an adversary and wanted to design a network with particularly difficult structure to partition, what kind would I want to include? (Other than reducing another NPC problem using gadgets!)

Walter Willinger raised a point here (and again in a few later talks) about the sensitivity of most network analysis methods to topological uncertainty. That is, just about all the techniques we have available to us assume that the edges as given are completely correct (no missing or spurious edges). Given the classic result due to Watts and Strogatz (1998) of the impact that a few random links added to a lattice have on the diameter of the graph, it's clear that in some cases, topological errors can have a huge impact on our conclusions about the network. So, developing good ways to handle uncertainty and errors while analyzing the structure of a network is a rather large, gaping hole in the field. Presumably, progress in this area will require having good error models of our uncertainty, which, necessary, depend on the measurement techniques used to produce the data. In the case of traceroutes on the Internet, this kind of inverse problem seems quite tricky, but perhaps not impossible.

**Probability and Spatial Networks**

David Aldous (Berkeley) gave the second talk and discussed some of his work on spatial random graphs, and, in particular, on the optimal design and flow through random graphs. As an example, David gave us a simple puzzle to consider:

Given a square of area N with N nodes distributed uniformly at random throughout. Now, subdivided this area into L^2 subsquares, and choose one node in each square to be a "hub." Then, connect each of the remaining nodes in a square to the hub, and connect the hubs together in a complete graph. The question is, what is the size L that minimizes the total (Euclidean) length of the edges in this network?

He then talked a little about other efficient ways to connect up uniformly scattered points in an area. In particular, Steiner trees are the standard way to do this, and have a cost O(N). The downside for this efficiency is that the tree-distance between physically proximate points on the plane is something polynomial in N (David suggested that he didn't have a rigorous proof for this, but it seems quite reasonable). As it turns out, you can dramatically lower this cost by adding just a few random lines across the plane -- the effect is analagous to the one in the Watts-Strogatz model. Naturally, I was thinking about the structure of real road networks here, and it would seem that the effect of highways in the real world is much the same as David's random lines. That is, it only takes a few of these things to dramatically reduce the topological distance between arbitrary points. Of course, road networks have other things to worry about, such as congestion, that David's highways don't!

posted May 7, 2007 11:49 PM in Scientifically Speaking | permalink | Comments (1)